Dutch Transport Grows 1% but Margins Are Squeezed: Truck Toll and Wage Rises Hit Hard

The Dutch road transport sector grew by roughly 1% in volume in 2025 — modest, but positive. Revenue growth looks healthier at 3–5%, partly driven by price increases. But behind those top-line numbers, margins are under serious pressure. A new truck toll, steep wage rises, and soaring insurance and equipment costs are stacking up faster than carriers can pass them through.

If you ship goods in or through the Netherlands — and given its position as Europe’s logistics gateway, you probably do — this affects your rates, your service levels, and your carrier relationships.

What you’ll learn:

• What’s happening to Dutch transport margins
• The three forces squeezing margins
• What the numbers look like
• What this means for shippers
• How to prepare

What’s happening to Dutch transport margins

The Dutch transport sector — roughly 18,000–20,000 companies, ranging from single-truck operators to large fleet owners — is caught in a cost trap. Revenue is growing, but costs are growing faster.

CBS (Statistics Netherlands) data shows road freight revenue grew 3.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025. But road freight prices only rose 1.4% in the same period — barely above inflation. That gap between cost increases and achievable price rises is where margins disappear.

Bankruptcies in the transport sector peaked at 85 per quarter in Q2 2024 and have since eased to 54 per quarter by mid-2025. That’s better, but still well above the 17–44 per quarter seen in 2021–2022. Entrepreneur confidence in transport hit -12.0 in April 2025 (worse than the Dutch average of -7.5), before recovering to -0.9 by July.

The sector isn’t collapsing — it’s grinding. Growth continues, but the economics of running a transport company in the Netherlands are getting harder.

The three forces squeezing margins

1. Wage rises: +5.5% in 2025, +6.1% expected in 2026

Labour is typically 40–50% of a road transport company’s cost base. When wages rise 5–6%, that’s a 2–3% hit to total costs before anything else changes.

The new CAO Beroepsgoederenvervoer (collective labour agreement for professional road transport) was agreed on 12 November 2025, with 81% of FNV union members voting in favour. Key terms:

The negotiations were contentious. Talks broke down in May 2025 over holiday pay calculations, resumed in September, and employers’ initial offer of 2.8% was dismissed by unions as “meagre.” The final 4% base increase — on top of 5.5% in 2025 — reflects a tight labour market and persistent driver shortages.

Research bureau Panteia estimates total wage cost increases of 6.1% for 2026 when you factor in social charges, holiday pay adjustments, and part-time hours regulations.

2. The Vrachtwagenheffing: a new truck toll from July 2026

The Netherlands will introduce a distance-based truck toll (Vrachtwagenheffing) on 1 July 2026, applying to all trucks over 3,500 kg on approximately 3,000 km of Dutch motorways and select roads.

Panteia estimates this adds up to 9.8% to a carrier’s cost base, depending on vehicle type and trip profile. In exchange, the Eurovignet (the current flat-rate annual charge) will be abolished for the Netherlands from 1 July 2026, and motor vehicle tax (MRB) for trucks will be reduced. But the net effect is still a significant cost increase, particularly for carriers running older diesel fleets.

TLN policy advisor Roger van Straaten: “The pace of stacking costs is unprecedented. Without realistic rates and predictable policy, investment capacity dries up.”

The toll creates a clear incentive for fleet electrification — electric trucks pay roughly one-fifth of the diesel rate — but for most carriers, the capital investment in electric vehicles is not yet realistic at scale.

3. Everything else is going up too

Beyond wages and the truck toll, Panteia’s October 2025 cost report paints a grim picture:

Equipment financing costs rising 20% reflects both higher interest rates and the rising cost of trucks themselves. Insurance premiums climbing 7% is partly driven by higher claim values and increased theft risk.

What the numbers look like

Put it all together and the margin squeeze becomes obvious:

Revenue is growing at 3–4%. Costs are growing at 5–10%. The difference comes straight out of margins — and for smaller carriers with thin margins to begin with, it can mean the difference between viability and insolvency.

What this means for shippers

Expect rate increases

Dutch carriers will pass these costs through. They have to. If your current contracts were negotiated in 2023 or early 2024, expect significant pressure to renegotiate when they come up for renewal. The truck toll alone justifies a mid-single-digit surcharge on Netherlands-routed shipments.

Smaller carriers are most vulnerable

The companies most at risk are small and medium-sized operators — the backbone of Dutch road transport. They have less room to absorb cost increases, less bargaining power with customers, and less capital to invest in electric vehicles that would reduce their toll burden. Some will exit the market; others will consolidate. Either way, available capacity may tighten.

The electric premium is real — but limited

The toll structure creates a genuine cost advantage for electric trucks: 3.8 ct/km versus 20.1 ct/km for diesel. But the upfront cost of electric trucks, limited range, and charging infrastructure gaps mean this advantage is only accessible to well-capitalised carriers running predictable, shorter-distance routes. For now, most of the fleet remains diesel.

How to prepare

Whether you’re a shipper routing through the Netherlands or a logistics manager based there, here’s what to consider:

1. Budget for rate increases from mid-2026 — The Vrachtwagenheffing goes live on 1 July 2026. Any carrier operating in the Netherlands will pass this through, either as a surcharge or embedded in new rates. Build it into your transport budget now, not when the invoice arrives.

2. Understand the toll structure — Not all shipments are affected equally. The toll varies by vehicle weight class, emission standard, and route. Ask your carriers how they plan to allocate toll costs. Carriers using electric vehicles on Dutch legs may offer a cost advantage — and the environmental reporting benefits are real too.

3. Diversify your carrier portfolio — If you rely heavily on one or two Dutch carriers, you’re exposed to their individual financial health. In a margin-squeeze environment, carrier insolvency risk increases. Maintain relationships with multiple providers and have contingency plans.

4. Review contract escalation clauses — If your transport contracts don’t already include mechanisms for toll pass-through and CLA-linked wage adjustments, they will after the next renewal. Make sure these clauses are transparent, auditable, and tied to published indices rather than unilateral carrier declarations.

5. Use your TMS to model the impact — A TMS with cost analytics can help you model how the truck toll affects your specific lanes, volumes, and carrier mix. Run scenarios before the toll goes live so you can negotiate from a position of knowledge, not surprise.

The Dutch transport sector remains a critical node in European logistics — the ports of Rotterdam and Amsterdam ensure that. But the economics of moving goods through the Netherlands are changing, and shippers who understand the cost drivers will negotiate better outcomes than those who simply react to rate increase requests.

Sources: CBS — Transport and storage sector data (Sep 2025), TLN — Panteia cost report 2025–2026 (2 Oct 2025), Vrachtwagenheffing.nl — Toll rates and implementation.

Johan de Grijff, Commercial Director

published on: 15-10-2025

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